Saturday, August 22, 2009

What To Do With The QB's This Year?

When making a decision on what to do at QB this season, there are several different ways to go. If you want Tom Brady or Drew Brees, it’s going to cost you a very high pick. I have seen Brady as a top five pick in some drafts and Brees usually isn’t too far behind him. Manning usually comes off the board next, then Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Kurt Warner start to come off the board after that. After that group of guys, it becomes a “Take your Pick” of Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, and Jay Cutler.

If you decide to wait on a signal caller this year, you can guarantee yourself a little more success at other positions like running back, wide receiver and tight end. By waiting you might not get a guy that is a consensus pick to be an every week starter, but with a little looking at the schedule for bye weeks, and favorable matchups, you can put a guy on the field with a great matchup every week. This article will help you know who to target no matter what route you decide to take, as we look at which QB’s to pair together to give yourself favorable matchups every week.

TAKING A QUARTERBACK EARLY:
If you do take Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, you probably are going to start them every week and only need a replacement for their bye week. Here is a list of some late round quarterbacks to target if you take this approach. Some of these matchups might not look as great later in the season with injuries and other factors playing in, but right now when you are getting ready to draft, they look pretty favorable.

Tom Brady: Brady has his bye week in Week Eight, and that is probably the only week that you will be putting him on your bench. There are a couple of guys that you can target really late in drafts to pick up with good matchups for Brady’s bye week. One is Marc Bulger, and he had can be had really late, and in some cases could be a waiver wire pickup. Bulger is playing at Detroit in Week eight, so obviously he should be able to put up some fantasy points. The second guy I would consider is Joe Flacco. Flacco is playing at home vs. the Denver Broncos. The Denver Broncos couldn’t stop anyone last season, and I would expect some of that to continue this season, and Flacco could put up very serviceable numbers this week.

Drew Brees: Brees has a very early bye week in Week Five, and there are two guys here that can be had late. The first is Ben Roethlisberger who is playing a road game vs. Detroit in Week Five, and the other is Trent Edwards who will be at home vs. Cleveland. Both Roethlisberger and Edwards have 12 or more quarterbacks coming off the board before them, so if you spend that high pick on Brees, you can definitely wait to target one of these guys to fill in that one week.

Peyton Manning: Manning gets his bye in Week Six, and there are 3 guys who you can get at various stages in the draft that warrant consideration for you to pick up for that bye week. Matt Hasselbeck is playing at home vs. the Arizona Cardinals who gave up more passing touchdowns than any other NFL team last season with 36. If you don’t want to spend that high of a pick on your backup, then you can look at David Garrard who will be at home vs. the St. Louis Rams in Week 6. The last guy you can target is Peyton’s little brother Eli, who will be playing at New Orleans in Week Six. All of those guys have great matchups that you can plug in for Manning that one week.

USING AN EARLY TO MID ROUND PICK ON A QB:
If you decide to wait the first two or three rounds before you take a QB, you will probably end up with Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, or Donovan McNabb. Here are some guys to consider for their bye weeks, if you land one of them.

Aaron Rodgers & Philip Rivers: Aaron Rodgers & Philip Rivers both have their bye weeks in Week 5, and there are three guys to consider grabbing for that week. Ben Roethlisberger, who we already talked about is on the road in Detroit and should be able to produce. Trent Edwards is home vs. Cleveland and should have a decent game, while Joe Flacco is someone else you can get really late with a favorable home game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.

Donovan McNabb & Kurt Warner: McNabb and Warner both have bye weeks in Week 4, and here are a few guys to consider picking up to give you a nice matchup for their bye weeks. Roethlisberger will be home vs. the San Diego Chargers who gave up nearly 250 passing yards per game last season and gave up 25 passing TDs. Shaun Hill could have a big game this week when he plays at home vs. division rivals, the St. Louis Rams. Finally you could consider Brett Favre who will be playing on Monday Night Football in Minnesota vs. his former team the Green Bay Packers. You have to think that Favre will be looking to really stick it to his former team and could have a really big game.

Tony Romo: Romo gets his bye week in week six and there are about three guys I would look to target to replace him that week. David Garrard can be had late and he will be at home vs. St. Louis. You can also get Eli Manning very late, and he will be on the road vs. New Orleans. Matt Hasselbeck will be at home to play the Arizona Cardinals, whom we talked about earlier.

USING A MIDDLE TO LATE ROUND PICK ON A QB:
This is usually my strategy in taking a QB, but if you are one of the last teams to draft your starting QB, then you need to be one of the first to draft your backup. Here is a list of guys that usually come off the board next, and who you might be able to pair them up with to have favorable matchups every week.

Matt Ryan: Ryan will have his bye week in week four, and there are three guys I would consider taking to pair with Ryan; Shaun Hill, Brett Favre, and Ben Roethlisberger. The thing to consider here when getting your QB to pair with Ryan is that the Falcons do have a much tougher schedule this season, and he has some tough matchups which you might want to consider when looking for a QB to pair with Ryan. In Week 4, it’s Hill at home vs. St. Louis, Favre on Monday Night in Minnesota vs. Green Bay, and Roethlisberger at home vs. San Diego. In some of Ryan’s tougher matchups this year where you might consider benching him, here are the same guys matchups. Week 9 vs. Washington – Hill at home vs. Tennessee, Favre on bye, Roethlisberger at Denver. Week 11 at the New York Giants – Hill at Green Bay, Favre at home vs. Seattle, and Roethlisberger at Kansas City. Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay who Ryan did not throw a single TD against last season , but did throw 4 interceptions – Hill at home vs. Jacksonville, Favre at Carolina, and Roethlisberger at home vs. Green Bay. This should help you make a better decision on who to pair with Ryan to give you good matchups every week. My vote would be for Favre. He has a great matchup in Week four vs. Green Bay, and when Ryan has to play the Giants and Eagles, Favre gets the Seahawks and Cardinals.

Matt Schaub: Schaub is a guy I really like and is starting to rise up a lot of draft boards. Due to his injury history I would consider getting a backup in the next few rounds after I drafted Schaub, and here are some of the guys I would consider; David Garrard, Kerry Collins, and Brett Favre. Schaub’s bye week comes in Week ten, and here are the other’s matchups that week: Garrard at the New York Jets, Kerry Collins at home vs. Buffalo, and Favre at home vs. Detroit. There are really only two games that can be considered bad matchups based on last season’s defensive passing stats and those are Schaub’s two games vs. Tennessee. Tennessee only allowed 12 passing touchdowns with 20 interceptions last season, and Schaub had only one touchdown and 3 picks, averaging 230 yards in his two games vs. the Titans last year. He plays the Titans in Week two and again in Week eleven. Here are the matchups for the guys I would target to pair with Schaub. Week 2 – Garrard at home vs. Arizona, Kerry Collins at home vs. Houston, and Brett Favre at Detroit. Week 11 – Garrard at home vs. Buffalo, Kerry Collins at Houston, and Favre at home vs. Seattle. I would suggest that you target Brett Favre as the guy to pair with Matt Schaub. In Schaub’s bye week and two games vs. Tennessee, Favre has two games vs. Detroit and one vs. the Seahawks. If you draft Schaub, I would look to wait a few more rounds, grab Brett Favre and be set at the QB position.

Jay Cutler: Jay Cutler’s bye week is in Week 5, and there are two guys that I would look to pair up with Cutler; Matt Hasselbeck or Joe Flacco. In week 5 Hasselbeck is home vs. Jacksonville while Flacco is home vs. Cincinnati. There are a couple of games that I would consider benching Cutler and those are week two vs. Pittsburgh and Week 15 at Baltimore. In Week 2 Hasselbeck is at San Francisco while Flacco goes to San Diego. In Week 15 Hasselbeck is home vs. Tampa Bay, while Flacco is home vs. Chicago. Flacco might not be on anyone’s radar, but is a good guy to consider to pair with Cutler based on his matchups when Cutler has bad ones. Flacco did nearly top 3,000 yards as a rookie, and could have a decent season, and you can get him very late if you decide to pass on Hasselbeck.

Carson Palmer: Palmer has his bye week in week 8, and also has a few bad matchups throughout the year with two games vs. Pittsburgh and two games vs. Baltimore. There are two quality options that you should consider when drafting Palmer; Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Edwards. Starting with Palmer’s bye week, Hasselbeck is at Dallas, while Edwards is at home vs. Houston. For the two games vs. Pittsburgh, Hasselbeck gets a home game vs. Chicago and a road game at Arizona. Edwards gets a home game vs. New Orleans and a road game at Tennessee. For the two games vs. Baltimore, Hasselbeck gets both games at home, one vs. Jacksonville, the other vs. Detroit. Meanwhile Edwards gets Cleveland at home for one, but has his bye week in the other. If you want to back up Palmer with Hasselbeck you will probably have to do it soon after you take Palmer, while if you decide to back him up with Edwards, you can probably wait just a little bit longer.

There are obviously a lot of different ways that you can go when deciding to take a QB this season, and hopefully this will help you to make up your mind, and give you a clear strategy when you get to your draft. Do you feel comfortable going into the season with a combination of Matt Schaub and Brett Favre, knowing you can load up in the first five rounds on running backs and wide receivers? Or are you going to jump on Brees or Brady in the first couple of rounds and wait to get your other skill positions? The choice is yours, but at least now you have a plan.

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Why I'll be Harvin, Percy on my Fantasy Team!

When I am drafting in rookie only drafts, there is one player that I am trying to target in every one. Percy Harvin, of the Minnesota Vikings. There are mainly two reasons I am trying to do this. First, Harvin is a playmaker. Sage Rosenfels recently said of Harvin, he's just a football player who goes out there and makes plays. Harvin has great speed and plays all of his home games indoors, in climate controlled situations, including two vs. the Lions. Second, they plan to get the ball in Harvin's hands on offense. I know Adrian Peterson is there, and so you have to wonder exactly how many looks will Harvin get. The thing for me is this, Harvin is listed as a WR in all fantasy formats, and he should get rushing attempts in every game. There are reports coming out every day from Vikings camp, about Harvin getting handoffs, Harvin running reverses, Harvin making plays! I think that Harvin is definately getting overlooked, and people are taking Crabtree, Maclin, and in some cases Darrius Heyward-Bey & Hakeem Nicks before looking at Harvin. I think you can get Harvin later in drafts, and I would target him in every rookie only draft I am in. Just the fact that he is a threat every time he touches the ball, and that the coaches are finding ways to get him the ball, means he will probably be boom or bust, but the weeks he goes boom, they could be big booms!

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Flacco to Harper? Flacco to Williams? Flacco to Heap?

Everytime I check the "Rapid Reports" over at CBS.Sportsline.com, I see the same headlines from Ravens camp, "Joe Flacco just threw a beautiful pass to Justin Harper for a 35 yard TD catch", or "Joe Flacco just hit a wide open Demetrius Williams for a 50 yard TD catch", or "Flacco just threw a 95 yard TD pass to Justin Harper", or "Joe Flacco just turned a bootleg into a 25 yard TD run". This is very interesting to see how well Flacco is playing, and apparantly how comfortable with all of his receivers. Obviously I am not there to see exactly how these plays are unfolding, but it seems from reports that Flacco is getting it done in a big way, vs. the 1st team defense so far in training camp. Flacco didn't set the fantasy world on fire in 2008, but he came very close to 3,000 yards passing, had 14 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs, and a 43 yard reception. It is not crazy to think that he could add about 30 yards passing per game, which would move his yardage totals very close to 3,500 and if he could add 5 TD's would move him close to 20. My point is that Flacco can be had very late in drafts, and if he continues to work well with the WR's that are in camp, the return of Derrick Mason (yes, it's official, he is coming back) can only help this 2nd year player continue to improve.

I admit that I was not a huge fan of Flacco, but I am a HUGE fan of value, and I think that while some might take chances on guys like Chad Pennington and Jason Campbell, if Flacco continues to look like this during live preseason games, he will definately start to move up my QB rankings. I know it's pre-season, but I when every single time I log on to check camp reports I constantly see Flacco making plays, maybe it's time to pay attention.