Ray's Week One In It To Win It

Going into the first week of the season, it is difficult to assess what players actually have good matchups. There is too much parity in the league from year to year to rely on statistics from last year, and the preseason can be very misleading as well. Add in the fact that most players are hesitant to bench the guys they took early in the draft the first week of the season, and you realize why average fantasy players examine their week one lineup like they should. Don’t be average.

In It to Win It

Julius Jones – Jones faced a bad St. Louis defense early in the year last year. He came out of that matchup 140 yards and one touchdown richer. Even with Edge James there, Jones should still get the bulk of the carries early in this season, and against a sub-par St. Louis team, Jones has the chance to go for over 100 yards again. Get him in your lineup.

Vincent Jackson – In his last game against Oakland, Jackson went for almost 150 yards and hauled in one touchdown, and that was with a fully healthy Nnamdi Asomugha in the Raiders secondary. With the Raiders pro-bowl cornerback hurting, expect San Diego to try and exploit the Raiders secondary deep. Jackson should get close to 120 yards and a touchdown.

Chris Henry – Henry has looked fantastic in the preseason, but admittedly most of his damage has come against backup defenses. Lucky for you, Denver defense is full of backups. It is hard to look at least season statistics to see how bad Denver’s defense was because of all of the player movement following the “successful” hiring of Josh McDaniel’s, but the six passing touchdowns they have given up in the preseason this year does not lie. Cincinnati will exploit that shoddy secondary, and I expect Henry to get a touchdown in this game.

Ride the Pine

Jay Cutler – Cutler, already known for his gun-slinging ways, is walking straight into Tombstone this week. Not only will Cutler feel the pressure to perform in his first start with the Bears, he is also facing a ball-hawking defense that picked off eight balls in the preseason and loves to get pressure on the quarterback. I think this could be a disastrous week for Cutler. He may get two touchdowns, but I think he could throw four picks. I would not want him in my lineup.

Wes Welker – This has more to do with the uncertainty about Welker’s injury than it does about Buffalo’s pass defense, but it is important to note how decent Buffalo was against the pass last year and this preseason. Still, I mostly dislike Welker because of how New England handles injuries. We still, four weeks after the fact, have no idea what is wrong with Welker and have no idea if he will play. It would not surprise me if Bill Belichick had Welker on his active roster and simply did not use him during the game. I would be very wary of Welker this week.

Jamal Lewis – I really do not need to tell you much more than that Pat and Kevin Williams will be allowed to play this week. Jamal Lewis is normally not a good start, but he is pretty much unstartable with the Williams brothers in the lineup. He could actually rush for negative yards this week.

I HATE unders, but.....

Everyone who listened to "What's Your Fantasy" last season knows that I HATE unders, but every once in awhile one comes along that you have to take. Last year's National Title game between Florida and Oklahoma was a perfect example. Neither of those teams had played a meaningful game in over 6 weeks, yet the point total was over 70, and they didn't come close. Tonight Boise State is hosting the Oregon Ducks and the total is currently listed at 64, and I think that is too high.

Boise State has the impression of playing in alot of high scoring games, and that is because of past year's teams. Boise State had 5 games in 2007 that went over 64 points, but only had 2 games go over 64 last season, including their 37-32 win over Oregon last season. My argument here is much the same as it was for the National Title game this past January. These teams haven't played meaningful football in a long time. There is no college pre-season, and most of the times college teams schedule an easy game for a home opener as a warm up game. I think these teams come out just a little bit rusty, and take a few drives to get in the groove, which could lead to a lower final score. I think people are remembering back to last year's game, but that was in Week 3 after having a couple of games to get their offenses up to speed, and they only scored 69. Those are my reasons for betting the under tonight, take it or leave it.

Why I like Oregon Tonight

Oregon will, expectedly, walk on to the smurf turf in Boise, Idaho tonight as an underdog.

For one thing, Boise State has won 50 regular season games in a row, including a 37-32 shootout win against the Ducks in Eugene last year. More impressively, Boise is 54-2 at home since 1999.

As you look at those stats, it seems almost a given that Boise has this game in hand. Why, then, do I love the Ducks in the game? It is a very simple answer.

Oregon should have won last year and have a better team than they did last season. I do not think Boise, after losing Ian Johnson, can make that claim.

As you look at last season's contest, you cannot forget that Oregon was up by six before starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was knocked of the game.

It is not surprising that, after Masoli was injured, Boise went on a 37-7 scoring run.

We have to think that, if Masoli stays in the game, Oregon would have been able to weather the Kellen Moore storm and come out of that game last season with a win.

Another reason I love Oregon is because they come into this year's clash against Boise with a lot of confidence after finishing the season in a very strong way with impressive wins over Oregon State and Oklahoma State, a team many people see as a dark horse in the National Championship race this season.

The thing I always want to see from a young team is improvement, and they certainly did that last season. Another off season should make this explosive team even better.

With Masoli healthy and Blount back for his senior season, I expect this to be the game that Oregon asserts their claim as a national power, and I expect they will do it in an impressive fashion.

I would take Oregon +135 and would certainly take them +3.